by Marg | Feb 1, 2022 | Commodity Review, Now Available
Gold, Durable Goods
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
· Base metal markets remain excruciatingly tight!
· High power costs are widely impacting global smelters’ output(s).
· The Chinese New Year (Year of the Tiger) begins 01 February 2022, with a week long holiday break for many operations.
- 2022 is a year of the Tiger, starting from February 1st, 2022, and ending on January 21st, 2023. It is a Water Tiger year.
- The Tiger is known as the king of all beasts in China. The zodiac sign Tiger is a symbol of strength, exorcising evils, and braveness.
· SUMMARY
· Copper Copper required for EVs is multiples of that required for ICE.
· Cobalt Demand growth forecasts are strong. Supply is likely to struggle.
· Nickel Ni supply will be stretched to meet forecast demand. POS’ outlook for redevelopments is good.
· Zinc & Lead Zn & Pb TCs increased. European power cuts continue to hamper Zn & Pb production.
· Tin Tin is experiencing scarcity pricing, in the grip of a prolonged supply-chain crunch.
· Aluminium European power prices, Russia/Ukraine, China approaching holidays with minimal stockbuild.
· Gold Gold price’s worst week since November.
· Platinum & Palladium Pt prices expected to increase over the next two years, on substitution for Pd, which may drift. .
· Oil OPEC+ unable to meet proposed production increases (so far).
· Iron Ore A renewed building boom in China & fears of Australian supply disruption.
· Shipping Merchandise world trade volumes +10.6% yr-on-yr in 2021, surpassing its pre-pandemic level..
· General
· World Gold – demand: Strong demand in the Dec21Qtr, notably jewellery. Negative long yields.
· USA – Durable Goods orders: Durables growth is strong, but vot Vehicles, nor Electronics.
by Marg | Jan 17, 2022 | Commodity Review, Now Available
Ports & USA-IP
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
· Base metal markets remain excruciatingly tight!
· High power costs are widely impacting global smelters’ output(s).
· The Chinese New Year (Year of the Tiger) begins 01 February 2022, with a week long holiday break for many operations.
- 2022 is a year of the Tiger, starting from February 1st, 2022, and ending on January 21st, 2023. It is a Water Tiger year.
- The Tiger is known as the king of all beasts in China. The zodiac sign Tiger is a symbol of strength, exorcising evils, and braveness.
· Iron ore offtake from Port Hedland in December was strong, as (many of them Asian) smelters and furnaces stock up ahead of Chinese New Year breaks.
· Japan’s offtake of iron ore has resumed growth. It will be interesting to see Japan’s December IP data, when it reports.
SUMMARY
Copper Cu price up on positive sentiment. NRX’ projects in Namibia are of interest.
Cobalt Demand for Co and Co intermediate products is growing.
Nickel Ni price at highest in a decade on concerns about supply and stock levels.
Zinc & Lead Fitch revised Zn forecast prices upward. China removed import tariffs on lead battery scrap.
Tin KLTM tin price at historic high levels.
Aluminium Soaring electricity prices in Europe have triggered cuts in aluminium production.
Gold Au prices down Friday but up on the week, on a weaker USD and mixed economic releases.
Platinum & Palladium A summary of uses and investment appeal..
Oil China’s annual crude oil imports for 2021 were reduced for the first times since 2001.
Iron Ore Market is looking for indications of China’s policy after the Winter Olympics.
Shipping Dry Bulk was good in 2021, looks promising for 2022. Indonesia allows some thermal coal exports.
General
Port Hedland – Iron ore: December offtake was strong. SE Asian demand ex China is growing:
Port of Singapore: Container traffic is becoming more robust, though bulks traffic is down .
USA – IP & Capacity utilisation: IP has resumed modest growth rates. Cap.Utiln is improving.
Bond Yields: Long term yields are approaching pre-pandemic levels.
by Marg | Jan 10, 2022 | Commodity Review, Now Available
USA
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
- Base metal markets remain excruciatingly tight!
- High power costs are widely impacting global smelters’ output(s).
SUMMARY
Copper Cu price is watching equities, supply & interest rate expectations.
Cobalt Outlook for cobalt prices is higher..
Nickel Reduces supply disruption in Indonesia & Philippines to assist supply. (still tight).
Zinc & Lead Korea Zinc – Sun Metals agrees to renewable power supply MOU’s .
Tin Outlook for 2022 softened slightly on increased supply.
Aluminium A major aluminium smelter in France is to reduce production, on high power costs.
Gold The gold price reaction suggests the market is focussed on inflation risks.
Platinum & Palladium Podium Minerals (POD): extending mineralisation for Resources.
Oil Doubts emerge as to OPEC+’s ability to increase output (to forecast levels) quickly.
Iron Ore China’s demand expected to increase after the Beijing Olympics..
Shipping Indexes for Capesize & Panamax increased though Supramax & Handysize reduced..
General
Australia – USA – Yields: Yields now rising and expected to increase further.
Baker Hughes – Rig Counts: Rig counts increasing on higher oil prices and recovery expectations.
USA Construction Spending: Growth still dominated by Private & Residential spending.
by Marg | Jan 5, 2022 | Commodity Review, Now Available
Nickel – Japan, South Korea
Dear Margaret
(ref no: 902)
Wishing you a Happy & prosperous New Year for 2022., and the ability to travel (safely when you want to)!
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
- Nickel outlook is for need for considerable expansion for stainless steel alone.
- Copper outlook is for significant demand growth.
- Base metal markets remain excruciatingly tight!
- Japan’s IP is recovering well.
- South Korean IP appears to have resumed an upward growth tre3nde.
- High power costs are widely impacting global smelters’ output.
SUMMARY
*Copper China’s factory activity unexpectedly accelerated in December. The world needs much more Cu.
*Cobalt The global cobalt supply chain is relatively fragile, sensitive to disruption.
*Nickel Primary nickel consumption to rebound yr-on-yr due to stainless steel capacity expansions alone.
*Zinc & Lead Power costs threaten production. Ag-rich Pb concentrates are in demand.
Tin Myanmar concentrate supply issues unable to be covered by Australian and Bolivian supply.
Aluminium Norsk Hydro cuts Slovakian output due to power costs.
Gold Price fell year-on-year though has risen in recent weeks. Price drivers are the usual suspects.
Platinum & Palladium Prices have reduced this year, though ongoing auto demand is rising.
*Oil China continues to rely in the Middle East for oil supply.
Iron Ore Prices registered first annual decline in three years.
Shipping The dry bulk market fared much better than the tanker market, during 2021..
General
South Korea – Industrial Production: Recovering well from covid-19.
Japan – Industrial Production: IP is recovering, supported by steel & machinery (& other).
by Marg | Dec 27, 2021 | Commodity Review, Now Available
USA – Germany – UK
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
- Saudi’s oil exports soared!
- Base metal markets remain excruciatingly tight! .
- Gold markets still range trade, pressured by uncertainty and improving economic outlooks. Everyone has a different time horizon.
- USA’s economy, appears, over all, to be recovering.
- China – keep watching for the Winter Olympics and particularly estimates for what China will do during and afterwards (politically and economically).
SUMMARY
Copper Protesters agreed to lift a blockade of one of Peru’s biggest copper mines.
Cobalt Cobalt has the potential to extend gains in 2022 after doubling in price this year.
Nickel LME nickel and the (Chinese) domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to hit new lows.
Zinc & Lead Zinc prices touched a two-month high on Wednesday on persistent worries about supply.
Tin SRZ: Assay results at Severn (Tas) have confirmed wide zones of high-grade tin mineralisation.
Aluminium European Union will place extra tariffs on aluminium foil coming from China.
Gold Thin trading and Christmas buying are keeping gold above the USD 1,800 level.
Platinum & Palladium Palladium’s price had an eventful year.
Oil Saudi Arabia’s oil exports soared in October as it benefited from higher crude prices.
Iron Ore Iron ore, a barometer for China’s economy and driver of the AUD, is having its wildest year ever.
Shipping Ocean freight costs are likely to remain high in 2022.
General
USA – Industrial Production: IP continues to recover. Capacity Utilisation has improved rates.
USA – Housing Starts: positive growth (dominated by two regions with the other regions slowing).
USA – Durable Goods: Durables show strong recovery, Vehicles weak! Electronics are more solid.
UK – Industrial Production: IP reports slow +ve growth, though at levels below ‘pre-covid’.
Germany – Industrial Production: IP reports slower -ve growth, after peaking in 2017.
by Marg | Dec 14, 2021 | Commodity Review, Now Available
Pt Hedland, USA-CPI
Dear Margaret
(ref no: 902)
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
- Australia’s CPI has increased to a relatively comfortable 3% (Sep21Qtr) while USA’s CPI has jumped to >6% in November.
- The USA CPI jump has had impacts on outlook for commodities, outlook for sentiment driven markets (gold).
- China’s CNY has been progressively increasing in value against USD (over the past 18 months). PBoC has indicated it will lighten its controls over the trading of CNY.
SUMMARY
*Copper The global refined copper market is expected to be in a significant surplus in 2022.
**Cobalt Power struggle developing for access to cobalt supply, & other ‘Clean Energy’ metals..
*Nickel Primary Ni market may move to surplus but ‘class 1’ nickel may remain in deficit.
*Zinc & Lead Zn TCs increased. ‘Renewable hydrogen facility planned for Port Pirie SA.
Tin Chinese tin output reduced on output restrictions. .
Aluminium Chinese output constraints are skewing the market.
Gold Price moved by USA CPI and USA 10yr yields’ impact on fiscal policies.
*Platinum & Palladium Reduced demand for both Pt & Pd is over semiconductor chip shortages.
*Oil Prices up buoyed by easing sentiment over the Omicron coronavirus variant.
Iron Ore Prices slipped on rising China ports inventory.
Shipping Baltic indices reduced Friday though increased for the week.
General
*Inflation – USA & Australia: USA inflation rockets to >6%.
*USA Purchasing Managers’ Index: Outlook reported at a strong >60 level.
*Port Hedland – Iron Ore Exports: +ve growth from China, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia & Vietnam
