Of particular interest this week:

China – Industrial Output  mostly positive growth. 

Copper:  should be positive in 2017.

USA TWI:  correlations with gold price, and others.

Oil:   It has been a dramatic year.  Now watch for compliance to the OPEC et al agreement.


Copper  Upbeat economic demand from China suggests demand growth should be positive in 2017. 

Nickel  Ni is a small market, with an increasingly positive outlook, though with many factors to consider. 

Zinc & Lead  Zn stood out in 2016.  Now look to increasing galvanising in autos in China and India.

Tin  Plymouth Minerals (PLH) drilling a Li-Sn project in Spain. 

Aluminium  Japanese aluminium premia will increase on tighter supply/demand.  

Gold  Correlation of Au price with USA TWI index, reasonably but not high.  Poor for other commodities.

Platinum & Palladium  New enhancement of Pt in catalysts, a really tiny squeeze.  

Oil  A dramatic year for oil.  There are several drivers, and historically non-compliance with quotas. 

Coal  All coking coal settlements concluded.  Indians expected to accept Japanese benchmarks. 

Iron Ore  Analyst forecasts for avg iron ore prices for 2017-18 remain low.  We believe upside is likely.

Shipping  Cape and Panamax rates down pre-Christmas. 


Coking coal Qtr price settlements:  for Mar17Qtr

Port Hedland – Iron Ore shipments:  South Korean growth surging.  

Port of Singapore:  ship traffic.  Positive yr-on-yr growth all round.

China Industrial and Energy Output – (mostly) positive growth for November.

USA – New Housing Starts – drop in starts negative growth for November.  Otherwise confident.