Of particular interest this week:

Copper & Zinc:   fundamentals are widely agreed.  Short term wrinkles tend to affect short term pricing.

Oil:   fractured negotiations but some potential for agreement.

World steel – if there is indeed surplus capacity, why is the price increasing? 


Copper  A more sustainable copper market recovery forecast for 2017 and 2018. 

Nickel  Indonesia to reduce royalties on processed and refined Ni, not on ore exports (though these are currently banned).  

Zinc & Lead  No one disagrees with the fundamentals for Zn.  However there remain some wrinkles.

Tin  Price forecast to continue increasing, upon forecast market deficit. 

Aluminium  Airbus sales permitted to IranAir. 

Gold  Short to medium term gold price expected to be volatile.  This is the most candid of the forecasts.  (Investors should look more to the project and company fundamentals, than to gold price).

Platinum & Palladium  Deficit forecast for 2016, but reduced from earlier estimates.    

Oil  Negotiations are somewhat fractured, but there is potential for an agreement by 30 Nov. 

Coal  In China met coal is competing with thermal for rail capacity.  In winter, thermal has priority. 

Iron Ore  Two drivers for price:  a rally in China steel prices, and stimulus driven speculative trading.  

Shipping  Cape rates increasing due to demand for iron ore. 


Gold Price vs bond yield:  nice theory but unreliable results.

Global Steel :  The Chinese steel mills ask, ‘if there is over-supply, why is price increasing’?

USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles and Electronics orders:  mildly encouraging.