Of particular note this week:

Pinch-point graphs for the base metals- highlights just how close to high prices each metal is.

Zn and Cu are tightening … Cu’s disruptions continue to emerge.  Zn deficit is widening.

OPEC to meet in a week.

Coal – Glencore buying coal operations – just after low point in cycle?

Political risk of operating in South Africa has escalated markedly (as per last week’s report) Now SA firms are investing offshore.

Trump needs to re-think his proposed bans on steel imports.  It is not China that exports significant steel to USA.


Copper  Codelco’s output forecast to be lower for 2017.  China proposes ban on scrap imports.

Nickel  Eramet cutting costs and proposing a nickel pig-iron smelter in Indonesia.

Zinc & Lead  ILZSG – Zn mkt in deficit (increasing) for first 5 months.

Tin  Prices up on proposed smelter shutdowns in China.

Aluminium  China’s closures of non-compliant smelters matched by opening new ones.

Gold  LME to begin publishing intra-day ‘reference’ prices for Au & Ag.

Platinum & Palladium  South African Pt producers investing outside SA.  .

Oil  OPEC meeting 7-8 August.  Venezuela potential as the first oil state to fully fail?.

Coal  Glencore to acquire Hunter Valley Ops (HVO) in JV with Yancoal.  This may be the cycle low.

Iron Ore  If Trump cracks down on steel imports it will hurt Canada, not China.

Shipping  Cape rates increased, Panamax rates stable.

General  Pinch-point (and similar) plots show how far the base metals stocks need to fall to get high prices.

USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Computers and Electronics goods.  – good growth.