Of particular note this week:

 Copper:   Labour contracts 2/28 reached agreement to date

Nickel:   Roskills outlook.

Oil:   Additional oil production is a much greater threat than equity market conniptions.

Germany – IP– robust outlook

Japan – strong industrial production.

 SUMMARY   Mkt moves appear driven more by sentiment (fears), than by economic fundamentals this week.

Copper  Codelco and Lomas Bayas agreed to labour contracts.  Still 28x remain to be agreed.

Nickel  Roskill’s outlook for Nickel.

Zinc & Lead  Zn smelters expected to reduce TCs.  TKM to buy Kroussau Zn-Pb project in Gabon, from BAT.

Tin  Solder is the most important application for Sn.  Outlook is sound.

Aluminium  Alba is expanding Al capacity.  Al is expected to account for 16% of Bahrain’s GDP.

Gold  Physical demand for Au picking up for Chinese NY and Indian wedding season.

Platinum & Palladium  Norilsk Nickel and Russian Platinum joining to become a major global influence in Pt-Pd.

Oil  Further non-OPEC production growth is considered a bigger threat to oil than current equity mkts.

Coal  Price tension from threat of the looming Aust cyclone season .

Iron Ore  China re-stocking for post-‘winter cuts’, and need for higher quality feddstock.

Shipping  Drop in demand on approach to Lunar New Year.


Port Hedland – Iron ore shipments:

Pinch-point graphs – Cu, Zn, Ni, Pb, Al, Sn:  overall trend is tight but weakened a little this wk.

Baker Hughes – Rig Count:  World up +86 rigs in Jan.  Nth American Rigs up +32 in Feb so far.

Germany – Industrial Production, Durable Goods, Orders to Industry:  All strong.

Japan – LNG Prices:  Up on January Brent pricing (which softened into February).