China transport & Recovery
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
- China’s transport data is inciteful in its portrayal of impacts on different segments, and potential recovery time-frames.
- Base metals are starting to show some price recovery though some of Covid-19’s affected-supply-shock will continue. Because of the disruption to both demand and supply, albeit in different locations and on different time-scales makes forecasting supply demand balances and conditions … difficult.
- USA PMI collapsed in May. The outlook is poor for USA.
- USA oil-shale rig counts have reduced dramatically. The rapid production decline profiles of the oil-shale holes means USA’s oil output will really shrink soon! … Commentary doubts an ability to recover quickly. Despite OPEC+ actions.
- Gold prices have reduced modestly anticipating industrial recoveries, though we expect ongoing triggers from other factors leading to ongoing volatility in the near future.
*Copper Cu price advances on Covid-19 recoveries and expectations of stimulus driven demand.
Cobalt Chinese Svolt claims development of a Co-free battery, but industry expects Co usage to continue.
Nickel Indonesia to retain Ni-ore export ban, though will relax exports on some other minerals.
Zinc & Lead Zn’s spot TCs continued down as South Americans restarted production, despite Covid-19.
Tin Forecast shortages of supply are now showing in inventories and prices.
Aluminium China is now importing aluminium. Japan’s Al price premium at lower levels.
*Gold Some safe-haven criteria are easing, though other triggers remain.
Platinum & Palladium Forecast Pt prices to have near term rally upon recovering industrial demand.
*Oil OPEC+ to agree to extend the 9.7 mb/d cuts. USA may have cut too much production?
Coal HCC & LVPCI Jun20Qtr contract prices. Imports surged into China, which is tightening ports again.
*Iron Ore Indian steel capacity utilisation is recovering post- heavy lockdown, measures. … ditto China.
*Shipping Shipping freight rates firmed on iron ore, coal and other bulk commodity demand.
*China – Freight and Passenger Traffic: comparisons between impacts of SARS & Covid-19.
*Baker Hughes – Rig Counts – World & North America: Rig counts down, across the board.
*Japan – Industrial Production & segments: Steep falls in output and growth for most segments.
*USA – Purchasing Managers’ Index: ‘Recovering’ slightly from lows but outlook is poor.
USA – Construction Spending: Growth rates down though remain positive (for April).