Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
The world’s equity and commodity markets appear to be widely comfortable with the USA election outcome of a President-elect Joe Biden:
- More Republicans are moving support toward an orderly transfer of power. So far Trump shows no sign of doing that.
- USA needs to make sure the ‘lame-duck’ does not cripple something else.
- Covid-19 infection numbers (and deaths) continue to grow in USA, Europe, India and South America (Brazil). Several commodity outlooks cite ‘recovery’ though there is still a likelihood that Covid-19 will dampen forecasts.
- Gold price outlook remains replete with potential catalysts. Goldman Sachs retains its bullish outlook.
- Base metals’ prices lifted markedly upon reducing exchange stocks and expectations of improving outlook via stimuli.
- However it is unlikely that Covid-19 influence has finished yet, variably impacting both demand and supply.
- Oil market is watching the looming OPEC+ meeting for 30Nov-01Dec.
- Coal markets continue to have sub-optimal trade patterns due to China’s (unofficial) restrictions on Australian exports.
- Industrially China (and parts of Asia) are recovering, while recovery in the rest of the world is a struggle.
- Singapore shipping growth has slowed markedly, reflecting slower pace of Asian trade growth, mostly due to COvid-19 disruptions.
- China’s demand for steel and copper has surged.
*Copper Stronger than expected demand from China has driven a price surge, supported by fundamentals.
Cobalt Volkswagen joined the DRC Cobalt for Development Initiative.
Nickel USGS summary of nickel markets.
*Zinc & *Lead Zn emerges as a surprising star performer, on supply issues. These are not GFC conditions.
*Tin Demand for ‘critical metals’ is skyrocketing to meet renewable-energy goals. Supply issues.
Aluminium The future of Victoria’s struggling Portland aluminium smelter should be known soon.
*Gold Forecasts for the USA economy, and for gold price, vary.
*Platinum & Palladium WPIC forecasts a second deficit year for Pt. Demand for Pt is growing. Potential for substitution.
*Oil OPEC+ talks 30Nov-01Dec, and growth outlook are key to considering extending quotas.
Coal China’s ‘unofficial’ bans on imports of Australia material is leading to suboptimal trade patterns.
*Iron Ore China’s crude steel consumption is up strongly. Steel mill inventories are down.
Shipping Oncoming Brazilian wet season pushing freight rates higher, adding to China-Australia tensions.
*Port of Singapore – Shipping: reduced bulk traffic with slow tanker traffic & flat container traffic.
*Japan – Industrial Production: recovering from Covid-lows but still -ve yr-on-yr growth
*USA – Industrial Production: Continuing negative yr-on-yr growth.
*USA – Housing Starts: Growth in Starts has been strong for 2x months. Still at late 90’s levels.