Freight: China, Port Hedland, Singapore
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
- As for last week … April through June, for most key countries, the base months in 2020 were the lowest base-readings data during the initial Covid-19 wave, meaning that yr-on-yr growth numbers are strongly influenced by the low bases. Do not be impressed by big positive numbers. Look instead at recent data relative to pre-covid levels, and trends, as a guide to performance.
- Base metal pinch-point graphs remain tight. Markets are now considering something they have ignored for years … the “fundamentals”, which are carrying more weight than the other market force: “sentiment”.
- OPEC+ is considering raising output, which will temper price increases that arise from recovering economies.
- Iron ore prices remain high, despite China’s steel output restriction plans. China’s steel mill capacity utilisation has reduced.
- Freight data for Port Hedland (iron ore shipments), Singapore (shipping traffic) and China (freight & passenger segments) broadly show recoveries under way, with various nuances, and that passenger traffic (logically) was much more impacted by epidemics than freight traffic.
- Droughts in China (Yunnan province) are impacting production of Al, Zn & Sn due to hydro-power restrictions. .
*Copper Commodity super cycle on the horizon, and Cu market is tight and needs new identified supply.
*Cobalt DRC to put in a floor price for artisanal Co ores. Co market is growing and prices are stronger.
*Nickel Ni prices tracking strong gains in stainless steel. EV demand is yet to really impact Ni. It is coming!
*Zinc & Lead Zn mkt & Pb mkt are resilient. Droughts in China limiting power available to smelters.
*Tin Sn prices at all-time record levels. Strong demand for solder / electronic goods. Droughts / power.
Aluminium China power cuts due to droughts, slowing production.
Gold Gold price moves attributed to outlook for USA bond yields and CPI.
*Platinum & Palladium Demand for PGEs is forecast to rise this year as economies recover (despite advent of EVs).
*Oil Expectations of growing supply, from OPEC+ and USA.
*Iron Ore Iron Ore’s 2-yr bull market is not about to end! China’s prices are at record highs.
Shipping Surging demand for infrastructure-related commodities (and other bulks).
CPI – USA & Aust. USA bond yields, gold price: A medley of data, some volatile.
*Port Hedland – Iron ore: Chinese offtake slowed but ex-China offtake jumped.
*China – Transport: Freight transport largely recovered. Passenger transport clawing upward?
*Singapore shipping: Modest increases for containers, and tankers, not bulk. Passengers positive.