Gold, Durable Goods

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.  

Matau’s Comments:

·                     Base metal markets remain excruciatingly tight!  

·                     High power costs are widely impacting global smelters’ output(s).

·                     The Chinese New Year (Year of the Tiger) begins 01 February 2022, with a week long holiday break  for many operations.

    • 2022 is a year of the Tiger, starting from February 1st, 2022, and ending on January 21st, 2023.  It is a Water Tiger year.
    • The Tiger is known as the king of all beasts in China.  The zodiac sign Tiger is a symbol of strength, exorcising evils, and braveness.  

·                     SUMMARY  

·                     Copper  Copper required for EVs is multiples of that required for ICE.  

·                     Cobalt  Demand growth forecasts are strong.  Supply is likely to struggle.  

·                     Nickel  Ni supply will be stretched to meet forecast demand.  POS’ outlook for redevelopments is good. 

·                     Zinc & Lead  Zn & Pb TCs increased.  European power cuts continue to hamper Zn & Pb production. 

·                     Tin  Tin is experiencing scarcity pricing, in the grip of a prolonged supply-chain crunch. 

·                     Aluminium  European power prices, Russia/Ukraine, China approaching holidays with minimal stockbuild.  

·                     Gold  Gold price’s worst week since November. 

·                     Platinum & Palladium  Pt prices expected to increase over the next two years, on substitution for Pd, which may drift.   .

·                     Oil  OPEC+ unable to meet proposed production increases (so far). 

·                     Iron Ore  A renewed building boom in China & fears of Australian supply disruption.

·                     Shipping  Merchandise world trade volumes +10.6% yr-on-yr in 2021, surpassing its pre-pandemic level..

·                     General 

·                     World Gold – demand:  Strong demand in the Dec21Qtr, notably jewellery.  Negative long yields.

·                     USA – Durable Goods orders:  Durables growth is strong, but vot Vehicles, nor Electronics.