Commodity Review 20181109 by Andrew Pedler – Now available

Commodity Review 20181109 by Andrew Pedler – Now available

Base metal exchange inventories continue to reduce, and those markets continue to tighten, while prices continue to follow noisy rhetoric. 

The world is not short of oil, nor is it short of lithium minerals but of lithium processing capacity (into hydroxide).

This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


*Copper  Chinese imports fell in October.  BHP & RIO & WoodMackenzie forecast deficits from BRI.

*Cobalt  Glencore’s Katanga Co-hydroxide product delivery restart delayed due to radioactivity (U) levels.

*Nickel  Ni prices are not high enough to encourage production growth.  New Caledonia stays with France

*Zinc & Lead  Zn: price down on expected mine output, but market is in deficit.  Pb: MYL drill results.

Tin  CAV has begun drilling at Kikagati in Uganda.

Aluminium  Al prices up as Norsk Hydro’s alumina refinery continues to be restricted.

Gold  USA Fed re-affirms monetary stance and outlook for a December rate hike.

Platinum & Palladium  JV to promote 3D printed platinum jewellery.

*Oil  Oil price down for fifth week, facing ongoing production increases.

*Coal  High HCC prices appear to have peaked.  NHC receives conditional approval for Acland expansion.
*BHP’s positive view on China’s BRI … and  “…trade protection created a lose-lose outcome …”

Iron Ore  China’s iron ore imports at four month low but still up 11% yr-on-yr.

Shipping  Asian bulk rates down for a third week.


Port Hedland – Iron Ore shipments:  China down in Oct though Japan, Sth Korea, Taiwan up.

*Baker Hughes Rig Counts:  Over production and lower oil prices to lead to fewer rigs.

Japan LNG prices:  October prices little changed from September.

Commodity Review 20180921 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20180921 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China – Interest Rates

This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


Copper  Concerns of impact of trade tensions continue to ease.

Cobalt  Low cost of mining in DRC provides buffers against new high royalties for strategic minerals.

Nickel  Inventories continue to fall.  Prices yet to really recover from the trading war rout.

Zinc & Lead  Zn market deficit deepens.  G1A and PMY developing Pb-Ag deposits.

Tin  Tin usage growth is slowing as tariffs compound longer term weaknesses in the Sn usage profile..

Aluminium  Japanese premiums reduced slightly.  Global output increasing.

Gold  Indian dowrys.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd outperform short term.  Pt outperform long term.

*Oil  Russia’s oil production increased to a new post-Soviet high, ahead of OPEC meeting.

Baker Hughes Rig Counts:

*Coal  NipponSteel benchmark metallurgical coal settlements.

Iron Ore  China’s iron ore (physical) trading platform seeing record volumes.

Shipping  Demand eased for Capes and increased for Panamax.


*Interest Rates/Yields – Australian and USA:  comparisons link short term differentials to FX

*PinchPoint updates:  Holidays are now over.  Inventories are falling with some price responses.

*China – Industry and Energy Output:  slower but positive for energy, & other select areas.

USA – New Housing Starts:  strong positive growth.