CommodityReview 20190215 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

CommodityReview 20190215 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.

Supply issues continue to abound, keeping some tension in most metals markets.  However as China’ ShFE resumed trading, seasonal factors are reported to have led to significant increases in Cu and Zn stock on that exchange.

Geopolitical factors continue to daunt and disrupt global investment and industrial markets.


*Copper  Outlook improved on: Chinese funding stimuli, & USA  China trade talks, & dearth of new projects.

*Cobalt  Outlook for ample Co supply, (DRC and others) for the next few years.  Low cash costs needed.

Nickel  PAN restarts Savannah.  KGHM Sudbury shutters Morrison.  Importance of Ni in Li batteries.

*Zinc & Lead  Qld floods disrupt transport for at least a month.  MYR reports world-largest primary Pb Resource.

Tin  Potential demand surge from Li batteries from ~ 2020, though surpluses forecast this year.

Aluminium  China’s Al exports at record high.  Iranian Al output increasing.

Gold  Investors awaiting further developments before making big moves.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd market in deficit.  Pt market in oversupply.

*Oil  Asian oil refineries stuck between OPEC production cuts and USA sanctions.

Coal  Spot met-coal buying by Chinese resumed.  Australian total coal exports up in 2018.

*Iron Ore  Chinese iron ore mines not likely assist supply, instead may cut output due to grades and costs.

Shipping  Asian freight markets returned strongly post Lunar New Year.


Port of Singapore – ship traffic:  Tanker & Bulks traffic strong in January ahead of Lunar NY.

Baker Hughes Rig Counts – World & North America:  rigs widely increasing (lagging oil price).

Japan – LNG prices:  tracking (lagging) oil price movements.

CommodityReview 20190215 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review – 20181012 -by Andrew Pedler – now available


*Copper  Cu price weakness has not been driven by fundamentals, rather by recent macroeconomic fears.

*Cobalt  Off-take parties asking for maximum volumes despite current quiet conditions.

*Nickel  Short term mkt pain but mid-long- term bullish on looming deficits.

*Zinc & *Lead  Zn market in transition to a (finely) balanced state. RVR, NCZ.  Revolutionary Pb filter.

Tin  Production slowing.  Demand outlook growing.

Aluminium  2018 an unusually volatile year, laden with political risk/interference.

Gold  Central bank holdings declined toward 2008 and have been increasing since 2009.

Platinum & Palladium  South Africa’s large Waterberg pgm project makes (regulatory) progress.

*Oil  In the face of outlook for plentiful oil supply, outlook for >USD 100/bbl is fanciful.

*Coal  Expected China-import surge for HCC ahead of winter restrictions, overestimated, so far.

*Iron Ore  Iron ore imports to China ignore fears of an economic slowdown.  Fears may be unfounded?

Shipping  Capesize rates down, Panamax up, this week.


*Port Hedland Iron Ore:  steady export rates, remaining high, and China dominant.

*Pinchpoint updates:  Regardless of sentiment, rhetoric and stock mkts, tightening continues.

*Baker Hughes – Rig Counts:  # Rigs increased after oil price rise.  USD 100/bbl target is fanciful.

Japan – LNG Prices:  LNG prices may be stabilising as oil prices soften slightly