Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 


*Copper  Pakistan’s military to take a key role in development of Reko Diq.

*Cobalt  Sector investors may not appreciate how quickly EVs are being adopted.

*Nickel  Nickel Sulphate:  demand growth to be driven by the auto and chemicals industries.

*Zinc & Lead  Namibian Zn refinery suspends operations.  Global Pb markets to be in ‘sizable’ deficit for 2019.

Tin  Reduced Chinese consumption in 2018 was offset by consumption in the rest of the world.

Aluminium  Venezuela:  no power, no aluminium.

Gold  USD gold price fell against others, so at least USD gold price increased.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd price at record levels.  Russia considered export bans for Pd.

*Oil  Price gains limited by concerns of rising USA production.  OPEC meeting this (16-17th) weekend.

Coal  Australian HCC exports continue to be stable.  Outlook on China ports still uncertain.

Iron Ore  India’s iron ore imports up significantly in 9mo to Dec18.  Exports also decreased markedly.

Shipping  Capesize rates recovered.


*Japan LNG prices :  prices may be about to bottom, though perhaps not just yet.

*USA & Australia – bond yields:  curves approaching inversion.

*China Industrial and Energy Output:  Strong growth in electricity, gas, batteries, glass.

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190111 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.

Base metal inventories remain tight.  Most focus still remains on sentiment, tariffs and trade wars. 


*Copper  Outlook for fresh Chinese demand lifts prices.

*Cobalt  Opposition wins elections in DRC.  UN to evaluate results.

*Nickel  Vale has long term plans to continue mining at Sudbury, based on outlook for Ni.

*Zinc & Lead  Zn price is disconnected from fundamentals.  Pb sees Chinese pre-NewYear stockpiling.

Tin  Chinese imports of Sn content from Myanmar are down yr-on-yr.  .

Aluminium  Consider aluminium as a leading indicator, and a metric of Asian growth and activity (as well as copper).

Gold  Goldman’s forecasts a higher gold price in 2019.

Platinum & Palladium  High spot Pd prices may lead to substitution by Pt, if outlook is sustained.

*Oil  OPEC cut supply, but USA playing a key part in oil oversupply.

*Coal  Benchmark coking coal prices.  Aust and Indonesia lose thermal market share to Russia & USA.

Iron Ore  RIO reports fire at Cape Lambert terminal.

Shipping  Panamax rates reduced this week, despite increased fuel prices.


*Bond Yields, curves and margins:  USA rates still ‘normal, but tight.  Aust short end inverted.

*PinchPoint updates:  Inventories continue to reduce, regardless of (sentiment driven) prices.

*Baker Hughes Rig Counts:  Expect Rig counts to reduce in current lower oil price environment.