Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available


*Copper  Copper’s current positive internal dynamics are increasingly at odds with its price.  It is not alone.

*Cobalt  DRC cobalt is favoured because of availability, and low As levels.

*Nickel  International consortium looking to produce Indonesian Ni for EV batteries.

Zinc & Lead  Zn Air batteries – developed and in use, for stationary storage.

Tin  ITA forecasts a slowdown In Sn demand growth, due mainly to Chinese growth rate expectations.

Aluminium  Notes at Metal Bulletin’s Aluminium Conference – Berlin.  Tariffs will not solve China’s overcapacity.

Gold  Prices are seeing little reaction & remain below key psychological level of USD 1,200/oz.

Platinum & Palladium  Zimbabwe’s policy changes aimed at attracting investment.  More change may be needed.

*Oil  The OPEC agreement has been well managed.  But, more oil needs to be discovered.

*Coal  Fire at North Goonyella!  South Africa’s new Mining Charter may need further revision(s).

Iron Ore  Chinese policy of shutting inefficient polluting mills drives demand for high grade feed materials.

Shipping  Panamax rates up while Cape rates flat, ahead of China’s October week holidays.


*South American Exchange Rates:  Chile, Peru, Argentina, Brazil.

*Base Metal PinchPoint graphs:  Inventories continue to reduce (except Sn).

*World Steel:  Healthy August yr-on-yr and 12-month yr-on-yr growth.

*Seaborne Coking Coal:  Australia dominates seaborne coking coal supply but patterns are shifting.

USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronic goods:  strong positive growth.

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available

Commodity Review 20180831 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


Copper  Peruvian communities protest against local mine infrastructure development.

*Cobalt  BMI considers recent price falls are more due to sentiment than demand reduction.

Nickel  Ni market still tightening. : PAN, CTM, POS, GBR, IPT.

*Zinc & Lead  CRU stress tests outlook for Zn regarding Chinese mine supply ability to return to production.  TKM

Tin  WBMS reports tin market deficit.

Aluminium  USA is trying to negotiate quotas for Canada and Mexico for Al instead of tariffs.

Gold  CSIRO demonstrates cyanide-free gold production in WA.

Platinum & Palladium  New Pt-Au alloy is the most wear-resistant metal;  comparable to diamond and sapphire.

*Oil  OPEC to meet 23 Sept.  USA sells oil from strategic Reserves, to cover sanction effects.

Coal  Asian thermal coal buyers becoming more cost conscious.  Producers look to European mkts.

Iron Ore  There has been relatively little investment in iron ore mines of late.

Shipping  Cape rates down, Panamax rates stable.


*China Freight:  Strong growth in rail, highway and water freight.

*Industrial ProductionSouth Korea, Brazil, India.

World Steel – widespread strong positive yr-on-yr growth, though avg daily output (mo-on-mo) slowed from June to July.