Commodity Review 20190712 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190712 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.  Most prices are in the ‘nose of pinch-point graphs.  Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption.  More media commentary is recognising this condition.  However sentiment (geopolitical) continues to drive prices over fundamentals.
  • Base metal (industrial metal) trade volumes though exchanges have slowed markedly during 2019, with ‘trade-war fatigue’ and the lack of apparent progress emanating from the USA-China trade talks, which  is affecting the confidence to make decisions and trade in markets.  
  • USA economic data (industrial production, orders to durable goods, housing starts, construction spending) that relate directly to commodities demand, are all showing signs of slowing or negative growth.  employment is usually a lagging data series, orders to durable goods and new housing starts are both indicators of confidence that normally lead employment data changes.  The USA Federal Reserve Chairman commented that there is a concern that slowing global economies may impact upon the USA.  Matau’s observations are that the USA economy is already slowing. 



*Copper  Term concentrate TC/Rs between Chinese and Chileans.  DRC’s Cu output down.  AIS doing well.

*Cobalt  Artisanal Co miners in DRC are the global swing producer.

*Nickel  Indonesia may reinstate Ni-ore export ban in 2022.   WSA, PAN.

Zinc & Lead  Nyrstar extends force majeure.  NCZ production ramping up.  Plans to double capacity..

*Tin  *Tin market under greater pressure from economic slowdown & falling demand than supply issues.

Aluminium  Trade conflict with China which investors expect to weaken economic growth and metals demand.

*Gold  Gold and financial markets may be a little ahead of themselves.  No details on talks still.

Platinum & Palladium  Wage negotiations: talks begin.

*Oil  Market tightening, though not clear how long will last.

Coal  Chinese mills restocking met coal, ahead of possible import controls.

Iron Ore  China’s iron ore imports fell in June.  Heading into the maintenance and antipollution half year.

Shipping  Capes boosted by iron ore.


*LNG markets:  demand will start to outstrip supply by 2022-2023

UK – Industrial production, manufacturing et al:  positive growth in most segments.

USA – Construction spending:  remains negative growth, particularly in private & residential segments.

Germany – IP, durable goods, & construction:  IP & Durables -ve.  Construction +ve.