Commodity Review 20180921 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20180921 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China – Interest Rates

This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


Copper  Concerns of impact of trade tensions continue to ease.

Cobalt  Low cost of mining in DRC provides buffers against new high royalties for strategic minerals.

Nickel  Inventories continue to fall.  Prices yet to really recover from the trading war rout.

Zinc & Lead  Zn market deficit deepens.  G1A and PMY developing Pb-Ag deposits.

Tin  Tin usage growth is slowing as tariffs compound longer term weaknesses in the Sn usage profile..

Aluminium  Japanese premiums reduced slightly.  Global output increasing.

Gold  Indian dowrys.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd outperform short term.  Pt outperform long term.

*Oil  Russia’s oil production increased to a new post-Soviet high, ahead of OPEC meeting.

Baker Hughes Rig Counts:

*Coal  NipponSteel benchmark metallurgical coal settlements.

Iron Ore  China’s iron ore (physical) trading platform seeing record volumes.

Shipping  Demand eased for Capes and increased for Panamax.


*Interest Rates/Yields – Australian and USA:  comparisons link short term differentials to FX

*PinchPoint updates:  Holidays are now over.  Inventories are falling with some price responses.

*China – Industry and Energy Output:  slower but positive for energy, & other select areas.

USA – New Housing Starts:  strong positive growth.

Commodity Review 20180921 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20180831 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


Copper  Peruvian communities protest against local mine infrastructure development.

*Cobalt  BMI considers recent price falls are more due to sentiment than demand reduction.

Nickel  Ni market still tightening. : PAN, CTM, POS, GBR, IPT.

*Zinc & Lead  CRU stress tests outlook for Zn regarding Chinese mine supply ability to return to production.  TKM

Tin  WBMS reports tin market deficit.

Aluminium  USA is trying to negotiate quotas for Canada and Mexico for Al instead of tariffs.

Gold  CSIRO demonstrates cyanide-free gold production in WA.

Platinum & Palladium  New Pt-Au alloy is the most wear-resistant metal;  comparable to diamond and sapphire.

*Oil  OPEC to meet 23 Sept.  USA sells oil from strategic Reserves, to cover sanction effects.

Coal  Asian thermal coal buyers becoming more cost conscious.  Producers look to European mkts.

Iron Ore  There has been relatively little investment in iron ore mines of late.

Shipping  Cape rates down, Panamax rates stable.


*China Freight:  Strong growth in rail, highway and water freight.

*Industrial ProductionSouth Korea, Brazil, India.

World Steel – widespread strong positive yr-on-yr growth, though avg daily output (mo-on-mo) slowed from June to July.


Commodity Review 20180921 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20180810 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


*Copper  BHP requests Chilean govt mediation at Escondida.  Workers at Codelco’s Chuquicamata on strike.

*Cobalt  Diverse end-uses.  Demand growth to 2030 from EVs and stationary batteries is strong.

*Nickel  Ni miners market optimism has increased, more so for sulphide producers.

Zinc & Lead  NCZ resumed operations at Century Zn mine in Qld.  WA EPA approves Paroo Stn Pb mine.

Tin  Reuters discontinues its NY spot tin price publication.

Aluminium  Strike at Alcoa (Australia) and potential Rusal (Russia) shutdowns.

Gold  Potential interest in Au, regarding Turkey’s TRY collapse and USA sanctions on Turkey.

Platinum & Palladium  Political storm brewing in Sth Africa over Implats’ decision to cut costs, jobs and production.

Oil  IEA raised demand outlook and supply of non-OPEC oil.

*Coal  pot prices for SSCC & LVPCI are below Newcastle thermal!.  Market is out of wack!

*Iron Ore  China’s imported iron ore market gradually stabilize after unexpected rally this week.

Shipping  Cape & Panamax rates down this week.


*Battery Minerals – Cobalt, Lithium, Graphite and Rare Earths:  Summaries of supply.

*PinchPoint updates:  Most metals (except Sn) are pushing toward volatile ‘noses’ of their curves.

*Port Hedland – Iron Ore shipments:  India increasing imports markedly.

Japan – LNG Prices:  increased ‘contract’ and ‘arrival’ prices.

Commodity Review 20180921 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20180706 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


The escalating trade conflict between USA and China has unnerved base metal markets this week on the uncertainty of outcomes.  We note potential and outcomes in this issue according to the perceived strategic motives and goals of the major participants.

However most economic parameters we can see to date (see this and recent Commodity Reviews) remain sound, and we expect fundamentals will ultimately win out over sentiment.  20180706

*Copper  Still 12x labour contracts to be negotiated in 2018, many in Chile.

*Cobalt  India is actively seeking to source battery minerals Li, Co et al. COB & CLQ comments.

Nickel  CLQ comment. **Escalating trade conflict between USA & China. What are the likely outcomes.

Zinc & Lead  China’s Zn & Pb goals complicated due to co-production of Zn & Pb. MYL, NCZ comment.

Tin Interest in Cornish tin revived, in part due to associated Li brines.

Aluminium  China has issues with shutdown declarations and practise.

Gold  EXU outlining shallow mineralisation near Tampia.

Platinum & Palladium  US-European trade issues are impacting auto imports into USA.

*Oil  Russia has boosted crude production rates.

*Coal  JFY2018-19 thermal contract settlement is unsettled (Glencore/Tohoku) though others may deal.

Iron Ore  Capesize demand is up on iron ore, while Panamax is reduced..

Shipping  Capesize demand up for iron ore, though Panamax down this week.


Pinch Point updates:  Ni is tightening. Pb, Al & Zn, then Cu, are fundamentally tighter

*USA – PMI:  US economic outlook is strong.

*China- Industrial & Energy Output:  +ve growth in electricity and other select segments.

*USA – Construction Spending:  positive growth Residential, Non-Res, Public, Private

*Japan – Orders to Machinery:  robust growth.