Commodity Review 20191004 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
- OPEC+ participants are girding their loins for potentially more production cut commitments.
- The USA – China tariff talks & trade wars continue to stunt trade oriented decisions. Some unexpected consequences (see tin).
- Base metal inventories continue to remain tight. In a broad sense not much has changed. Base metal prices are struggling to cope with the negative fears driven largely by the USA-China trade tensions. Low base metal inventories are getting more attention in the media than previously.
SUMMARY
*Copper Trade wars continue to deter activity. Outlook for future supply remains tight.
Cobalt Co inventory from the previously failed Fanya Metal Exchange to be auctioned on Oct 5th.
*Nickel Ni prices responding to low refined Ni stocks and looming ban on ore exports.
*Zinc & Lead Northern Canadian infrastructure proposed to deliver remote new mine production. IBG Citronen.
*Tin A bad vegetable harvest stings tariff affected USA steel makers.
Aluminium Vietnam imposes anti-dumping tariffs on Chinee products.
*Gold “Global policy uncertainty is at an all-time high”.
Platinum & Palladium Pd prices have run to record highs, on demand growth and supply deficit.
*Oil Nigeria prepared to make cuts to meet its OPEC+ commitments.
Coal Chinese buying of low price met coal imports continues.
*Iron Ore India to auction mining leases. May disrupt local supply and require imports to balance demand.
Shipping Cape & Panamax rates reduced this week, on easier grain & iron ore demand.
General
*Port of Singapore Shipping Traffic: Bulk Carriers & Tankers +ve growth.
*USA – Construction Spending: public non-residential spending +ve, but private residential is -ve.
*USA – PMI: Still indicating a contracting manufacturing economy.
*Japan – Industrial Production: Overall modest contraction in IP.