Commodity Review 20190809 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190809 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 

Matau’s Comments:  

  • OECD CLIs  suggest that growth outlook for much of the world (except Europe) looks like picking up in late 2019 with much of Asian emerging countries currently in decent growth mode. 
  • Chinese Freight traffic  for June reports good growth.  
  • Base metal inventories continue to remain tight.  Most prices are in the ‘nose of pinch-point graphs.  Pinchpoint positions are mostly less than 1 week’s consumption.   However sentiment (geopolitical) continues to drive prices over fundamentals.  
  • Japanese LNG pricing is reacting to changes (liberalisation) of its energy markets.


*Copper  Recent slide in Cu prices to limit investment in new mines, creating a tighter future market.

*Cobalt  Glencore to reduce Co output from DRC at current ‘low’ prices.

*Nickel  Fears Indonesia will bring forward bans on Ni ore exports.  Confirmed being considered.

Zinc & Lead  NCZ progressing Century expansion.  Woodmac summary of Zn mkt.  Pb mkt OK near term.

Tin  Indonesia’s refined Sn exports shrank.

Aluminium  Rusal is restoring operations post USA sanctions.  Concerned about USA-China trade tensions.

Gold  Make reasonable estimates of future gold price.  Most forecasts are ‘wishful thinking’.

Platinum & Palladium  Pt-Pd price spreads.

*Oil  USA EPA proposed new rule to limit states from stalling pipeline construction.

*Coal  Tata Steel has large future HCC demand.  China’s import controls settling into place.

Iron Ore  Prices stabilising after large drop last week.  Market to remain undersupplied to 2020.

Shipping  Cape and panama rates softened.


*OECD Composite Leading Indicators:  Most, except Europe, with good growth outlooks.

China – Freight:  strong positive growth.

*USA – Baker Hughes Rig Counts:  USA counts are down while rest of world counts are up.

*Japan – LNG prices:  Prices fell heavily, on liberalised markets and with oil price falls.

Commodity Review 20190809 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review – 20181012 -by Andrew Pedler – now available


*Copper  Cu price weakness has not been driven by fundamentals, rather by recent macroeconomic fears.

*Cobalt  Off-take parties asking for maximum volumes despite current quiet conditions.

*Nickel  Short term mkt pain but mid-long- term bullish on looming deficits.

*Zinc & *Lead  Zn market in transition to a (finely) balanced state. RVR, NCZ.  Revolutionary Pb filter.

Tin  Production slowing.  Demand outlook growing.

Aluminium  2018 an unusually volatile year, laden with political risk/interference.

Gold  Central bank holdings declined toward 2008 and have been increasing since 2009.

Platinum & Palladium  South Africa’s large Waterberg pgm project makes (regulatory) progress.

*Oil  In the face of outlook for plentiful oil supply, outlook for >USD 100/bbl is fanciful.

*Coal  Expected China-import surge for HCC ahead of winter restrictions, overestimated, so far.

*Iron Ore  Iron ore imports to China ignore fears of an economic slowdown.  Fears may be unfounded?

Shipping  Capesize rates down, Panamax up, this week.


*Port Hedland Iron Ore:  steady export rates, remaining high, and China dominant.

*Pinchpoint updates:  Regardless of sentiment, rhetoric and stock mkts, tightening continues.

*Baker Hughes – Rig Counts:  # Rigs increased after oil price rise.  USD 100/bbl target is fanciful.

Japan – LNG Prices:  LNG prices may be stabilising as oil prices soften slightly