Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’. 


*Copper  Pakistan’s military to take a key role in development of Reko Diq.

*Cobalt  Sector investors may not appreciate how quickly EVs are being adopted.

*Nickel  Nickel Sulphate:  demand growth to be driven by the auto and chemicals industries.

*Zinc & Lead  Namibian Zn refinery suspends operations.  Global Pb markets to be in ‘sizable’ deficit for 2019.

Tin  Reduced Chinese consumption in 2018 was offset by consumption in the rest of the world.

Aluminium  Venezuela:  no power, no aluminium.

Gold  USD gold price fell against others, so at least USD gold price increased.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd price at record levels.  Russia considered export bans for Pd.

*Oil  Price gains limited by concerns of rising USA production.  OPEC meeting this (16-17th) weekend.

Coal  Australian HCC exports continue to be stable.  Outlook on China ports still uncertain.

Iron Ore  India’s iron ore imports up significantly in 9mo to Dec18.  Exports also decreased markedly.

Shipping  Capesize rates recovered.


*Japan LNG prices :  prices may be about to bottom, though perhaps not just yet.

*USA & Australia – bond yields:  curves approaching inversion.

*China Industrial and Energy Output:  Strong growth in electricity, gas, batteries, glass.

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

CommodityReview 20190215 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.

Supply issues continue to abound, keeping some tension in most metals markets.  However as China’ ShFE resumed trading, seasonal factors are reported to have led to significant increases in Cu and Zn stock on that exchange.

Geopolitical factors continue to daunt and disrupt global investment and industrial markets.


*Copper  Outlook improved on: Chinese funding stimuli, & USA  China trade talks, & dearth of new projects.

*Cobalt  Outlook for ample Co supply, (DRC and others) for the next few years.  Low cash costs needed.

Nickel  PAN restarts Savannah.  KGHM Sudbury shutters Morrison.  Importance of Ni in Li batteries.

*Zinc & Lead  Qld floods disrupt transport for at least a month.  MYR reports world-largest primary Pb Resource.

Tin  Potential demand surge from Li batteries from ~ 2020, though surpluses forecast this year.

Aluminium  China’s Al exports at record high.  Iranian Al output increasing.

Gold  Investors awaiting further developments before making big moves.

Platinum & Palladium  Pd market in deficit.  Pt market in oversupply.

*Oil  Asian oil refineries stuck between OPEC production cuts and USA sanctions.

Coal  Spot met-coal buying by Chinese resumed.  Australian total coal exports up in 2018.

*Iron Ore  Chinese iron ore mines not likely assist supply, instead may cut output due to grades and costs.

Shipping  Asian freight markets returned strongly post Lunar New Year.


Port of Singapore – ship traffic:  Tanker & Bulks traffic strong in January ahead of Lunar NY.

Baker Hughes Rig Counts – World & North America:  rigs widely increasing (lagging oil price).

Japan – LNG prices:  tracking (lagging) oil price movements.

Commodity Review 20190315 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20181109 by Andrew Pedler – Now available

Base metal exchange inventories continue to reduce, and those markets continue to tighten, while prices continue to follow noisy rhetoric. 

The world is not short of oil, nor is it short of lithium minerals but of lithium processing capacity (into hydroxide).

This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


*Copper  Chinese imports fell in October.  BHP & RIO & WoodMackenzie forecast deficits from BRI.

*Cobalt  Glencore’s Katanga Co-hydroxide product delivery restart delayed due to radioactivity (U) levels.

*Nickel  Ni prices are not high enough to encourage production growth.  New Caledonia stays with France

*Zinc & Lead  Zn: price down on expected mine output, but market is in deficit.  Pb: MYL drill results.

Tin  CAV has begun drilling at Kikagati in Uganda.

Aluminium  Al prices up as Norsk Hydro’s alumina refinery continues to be restricted.

Gold  USA Fed re-affirms monetary stance and outlook for a December rate hike.

Platinum & Palladium  JV to promote 3D printed platinum jewellery.

*Oil  Oil price down for fifth week, facing ongoing production increases.

*Coal  High HCC prices appear to have peaked.  NHC receives conditional approval for Acland expansion.
*BHP’s positive view on China’s BRI … and  “…trade protection created a lose-lose outcome …”

Iron Ore  China’s iron ore imports at four month low but still up 11% yr-on-yr.

Shipping  Asian bulk rates down for a third week.


Port Hedland – Iron Ore shipments:  China down in Oct though Japan, Sth Korea, Taiwan up.

*Baker Hughes Rig Counts:  Over production and lower oil prices to lead to fewer rigs.

Japan LNG prices:  October prices little changed from September.