Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available


*Copper  Copper’s current positive internal dynamics are increasingly at odds with its price.  It is not alone.

*Cobalt  DRC cobalt is favoured because of availability, and low As levels.

*Nickel  International consortium looking to produce Indonesian Ni for EV batteries.

Zinc & Lead  Zn Air batteries – developed and in use, for stationary storage.

Tin  ITA forecasts a slowdown In Sn demand growth, due mainly to Chinese growth rate expectations.

Aluminium  Notes at Metal Bulletin’s Aluminium Conference – Berlin.  Tariffs will not solve China’s overcapacity.

Gold  Prices are seeing little reaction & remain below key psychological level of USD 1,200/oz.

Platinum & Palladium  Zimbabwe’s policy changes aimed at attracting investment.  More change may be needed.

*Oil  The OPEC agreement has been well managed.  But, more oil needs to be discovered.

*Coal  Fire at North Goonyella!  South Africa’s new Mining Charter may need further revision(s).

Iron Ore  Chinese policy of shutting inefficient polluting mills drives demand for high grade feed materials.

Shipping  Panamax rates up while Cape rates flat, ahead of China’s October week holidays.


*South American Exchange Rates:  Chile, Peru, Argentina, Brazil.

*Base Metal PinchPoint graphs:  Inventories continue to reduce (except Sn).

*World Steel:  Healthy August yr-on-yr and 12-month yr-on-yr growth.

*Seaborne Coking Coal:  Australia dominates seaborne coking coal supply but patterns are shifting.

USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronic goods:  strong positive growth.

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available

Commodity Review 20180914 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

AUD Price XY Plots

This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


*Copper  Chile studying a proposal to increase mineral royalties.  Support for the bill is doubtful.

Cobalt  COB  begins large drill campaign.   HAV  completed metallurgical drilling

*Nickel  Several global metals producers looking toward Indonesian Ni via HPAL for EV markets.

Zinc & Lead  NCZ delivering Zn conc. via pipeline to Karumba.  TZN DFS on Tala Hamza-Amizour.  PEX’s Wagga Tank

Tin  ITA estimates increased refined tin demand in 2017.

Aluminium  Iran’s Al consumption increased by 12% in 2017.

Gold  Gold price forecast to be rangebound pending delivery of Federal Reserve rates expectations.

Platinum & Palladium  South African Pt production continues, supported by a weak ZAR, but margins are challenging.

*Oil  China’s oil production up marginally. Oil & gas imports up markedly.

Coal  Coking coal demand from India and China supporting prices.  Adani redesigned its rail plans

Iron Ore  China’s steel output eased in August after record highs in July.

Shipping  Cape rates up, Panamax rates up as well.


AUD / commodity XY plots:  generally a relationship with AUD following prices.

Port Hedland – Iron ore Shipping:   Shipments to China up almost 10%.

Port of Singapore – ship traffic:   Total traffic down but container traffic up.

USA PMI:  strong outlook.

USA Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation:  strong IP growth, and Cap.Ut rising.

Japan – LNG prices:   Contract prices following oil prices (up).