Commodity Review 20190111 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20190111 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.

Base metal inventories remain tight.  Most focus still remains on sentiment, tariffs and trade wars. 


*Copper  Outlook for fresh Chinese demand lifts prices.

*Cobalt  Opposition wins elections in DRC.  UN to evaluate results.

*Nickel  Vale has long term plans to continue mining at Sudbury, based on outlook for Ni.

*Zinc & Lead  Zn price is disconnected from fundamentals.  Pb sees Chinese pre-NewYear stockpiling.

Tin  Chinese imports of Sn content from Myanmar are down yr-on-yr.  .

Aluminium  Consider aluminium as a leading indicator, and a metric of Asian growth and activity (as well as copper).

Gold  Goldman’s forecasts a higher gold price in 2019.

Platinum & Palladium  High spot Pd prices may lead to substitution by Pt, if outlook is sustained.

*Oil  OPEC cut supply, but USA playing a key part in oil oversupply.

*Coal  Benchmark coking coal prices.  Aust and Indonesia lose thermal market share to Russia & USA.

Iron Ore  RIO reports fire at Cape Lambert terminal.

Shipping  Panamax rates reduced this week, despite increased fuel prices.


*Bond Yields, curves and margins:  USA rates still ‘normal, but tight.  Aust short end inverted.

*PinchPoint updates:  Inventories continue to reduce, regardless of (sentiment driven) prices.

*Baker Hughes Rig Counts:  Expect Rig counts to reduce in current lower oil price environment.