Commodity Review 20181130 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20181130 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Global steel production reflects industrial and economic activity.  For October the highlights are a surge from China and more widely, including from “other world”. 

Pinch point graphs for the base metals continue to show tightening markets with reduced exchange inventories, with perhaps the beginnings of price responses.

This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


*Copper  The big guys, FMG, BHP, RIO all increasing focus on copper exploration (and discoveries).

Cobalt  Industrial customers working toward better conditions for DRC miners.

Nickel  Ni market described as tight in China.  Demand increasing.

*Zinc & Lead  Zn: stocks falling, backwardation deepening.  ORN discovery.  Pb – China now a net importer.

Tin  If MIT is right in its findings, there is a slow-burn bull fuse smoking away in the tiny tin market.

Aluminium  Primary Al production will not meet demand in 2019 say Norsk Hydro.

*Gold  The China-USA G20 ‘agreement’ is not so much an agreement as a 90 day ‘ceasefire’.

Platinum & Palladium WPIC increased its forecast for a Pt surplus.

*Oil  USA about to become a net energy exporter.  OPEC and others considering restrictions.

*Coal  Tariffs and Trade-wars:  Jobs are created with fanfares.  Jobs disappear quietly.

Iron Ore  High grade ore premia have been hit hardest in China.

Shipping  Capesize rates rebounded on iron ore and agri-trade.


*World Steel:  Strong growth, particularly a surge in growth from China, and globally more widely.