Commodity Review 20190308 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available
Australia Exploration, USA
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Matau’s Comments:
Australian exploration spending is recovering, showing confidence in the medium to longer term, despite current geopolitical and sentiment noise. The world is still looking for resolution to trade and tariff wars, and is starting to look through the noisy rhetoric of political announcements for the likely real impacts.
This week, analyst comments on China see through the high level PMI numbers, showing that commodities imports are in fact growing.
Toyota’s thinking on EVs is more commercial than most.
SUMMARY
*Copper China’s imports of Cu ‘concentrates’ at new highs, though import of ‘refined’ Cu dipped.
*Cobalt Lesson in boom-bust, though the Co outlook remains good. It is all the timing of supply & demand.
*Nickel Toyota’s battery philosophy! INSG forecasts a fourth year of deficits for Ni.
Zinc & Lead Glencore agreed Zn TCs with subsidiary Noranda Income Fund. Secondary Pb to be ShFE listed.
Tin Suspension of PT Surveyor Indonesia has ended, and it is able to export again.
Aluminium Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) ramping up its line-6 potline.
*Gold Monetary tightening expectations eased. USA February jobs data is encouraging (patience).
Platinum & Palladium Details of the world’s eight largest palladium producers. Pd price is approaching 2x Pt price !
*Oil A myriad of factors: Expect USA to be disciplined by prices, and Saudi & Russia balance the mkt.
Coal Seaborne HCC prices buoyant. Thermal negotiations under way. USA coal shipments hindered.
Iron Ore China’s iron ore imports at a 10 mo low in February.
Shipping Cape rates still suffering. Panamax & Supramax rates are up.
General
*Australia – Mineral & Energy Exploration: Mineral & Petroleum spending continued recovery.
*Port Hedland – Iron ore shipments: Small positive 12 mo growth for yr to February.
*China: Caixin & NBS PMIs & GDP – Clyde says ‘look at commodity imports’.
*USA – House Starts: Negative growth though better than December’s fall.
*USA Construction Spending: slow positive growth but residential spend is down.