Commodity Review 20181102  by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20181102 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


The constant theme remains that most commodity markets are tight, some very tight, yet markets’ sentiment continues to focus upon the rhetoric, noise and fears of outcomes of USA sanctions, and tariffs, and potential impacts of slowdowns in Chinese growth rates. There is also inordinate attention paid to some spot markets which have very small volumes of material traded, and to not really provide representative prices.

A key question is what catalyst(s) is required for the market(s) sentiment to divert gaze from the noisy froth toward the continually tightening fundamentals?   

Copper  Cu market remains fundamentally tight.  The looming EV surge will just tighten it further.

Cobalt  China’s cobalt metal price fell last week with panic spot sales.  Spot liquidity is very thin.

Nickel  Glencore sees structural Ni deficits continuing.  New Caledonia is to vote.

Zinc & Lead  Spot Zn concentrate TCs increased.  Estimates for Pb deficits have increased.

Tin  There are two tin markets with different participants.  ShFE wants to attract more ‘industry.

Aluminium  Keep an eye on USA-China meetings, the G20 meeting.

Gold  Diwali commences 7th Nov.  USA Midterm elections are 6 Nov.

Platinum & Palladium  Pt production is increasing.

Oil  2nd tranche of sanctions effective 5 Nov.  Though key customers exempted.

Coal  Met coal market appears balanced amidst tight supply.

Iron Ore  China’s winter restrictions begin.  Not all details known yet.

Shipping  Shipping rates down this week.


USA – PMI:  continued strong growth.

USA Construction Spending:  Strong growth.

Japan Industrial Production:  slower growth in last two months.