CommodityReview 20190215 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available
Venezuela
Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.
Supply issues continue to abound, keeping some tension in most metals markets. However as China’ ShFE resumed trading, seasonal factors are reported to have led to significant increases in Cu and Zn stock on that exchange.
Geopolitical factors continue to daunt and disrupt global investment and industrial markets.
SUMMARY
*Copper Outlook improved on: Chinese funding stimuli, & USA China trade talks, & dearth of new projects.
*Cobalt Outlook for ample Co supply, (DRC and others) for the next few years. Low cash costs needed.
Nickel PAN restarts Savannah. KGHM Sudbury shutters Morrison. Importance of Ni in Li batteries.
*Zinc & Lead Qld floods disrupt transport for at least a month. MYR reports world-largest primary Pb Resource.
Tin Potential demand surge from Li batteries from ~ 2020, though surpluses forecast this year.
Aluminium China’s Al exports at record high. Iranian Al output increasing.
Gold Investors awaiting further developments before making big moves.
Platinum & Palladium Pd market in deficit. Pt market in oversupply.
*Oil Asian oil refineries stuck between OPEC production cuts and USA sanctions.
Coal Spot met-coal buying by Chinese resumed. Australian total coal exports up in 2018.
*Iron Ore Chinese iron ore mines not likely assist supply, instead may cut output due to grades and costs.
Shipping Asian freight markets returned strongly post Lunar New Year.
General
Port of Singapore – ship traffic: Tanker & Bulks traffic strong in January ahead of Lunar NY.
Baker Hughes Rig Counts – World & North America: rigs widely increasing (lagging oil price).
Japan – LNG prices: tracking (lagging) oil price movements.