Commodity Review 20190118 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.

Composite Leading Indicators, and other reports and data, point to Asian economies continuing growth, while many western economic growth rates are not forecast to improve till late 2019 or into 2020.  

USA tariffs and sanctions continue to adversely impact US businesses, which themselves are calling for reprieves or compensation.


Copper  Prices up on anticipation of resolution(s) to the USA-China tariff battles, & Brexit.

Cobalt  Despite a sharp price correction, forward prices forecast are to be underpinned by demand growth.

*Nickel  Nickel shorts caught out by off-exchange inventories generated by the EV narrative.

Zinc & Lead  TKM drilling at Kroussou;  ORN updated Prieska Resource;  VXR Sulphur Springs’ finance.

*Tin  The USA’s Critical Minerals List.  … includes tin.  Recoveries of metals from circuit boards.

Aluminium  ‘Off-exchange’ inventories contribute to murky understanding of the Al market.

Gold  Gold price has not moved much, being driven by a host of, often conflicting, drivers.

*Platinum & Palladium  Pt may be a ‘dark horse’ among precious metal, according to Pimco.

*Oil  IEA maintains global oil demand forecast for 2019, amidst a changing supply environment.

Coal  Coking coal (seaborne) market is adjusting more & more to cyclical and volatile factors.

*Iron Ore  A USA response to US (trumped up) complaints of “foul & unfair” practices by iron ore companies.

Shipping  Sharp decline in Asian freight rates.  Outlook is for improvements (China ports & India buying).


*OECD Composite Leading Indicators:  Asia is growing well. Western growth from late? 2019.

USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronics orders:  reasonable to good growth.

Japan – LNG Prices:  reduced on falls in December oil prices.

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available

Commodity Review – 20180928 -by Andrew Pedler – now available


*Copper  Copper’s current positive internal dynamics are increasingly at odds with its price.  It is not alone.

*Cobalt  DRC cobalt is favoured because of availability, and low As levels.

*Nickel  International consortium looking to produce Indonesian Ni for EV batteries.

Zinc & Lead  Zn Air batteries – developed and in use, for stationary storage.

Tin  ITA forecasts a slowdown In Sn demand growth, due mainly to Chinese growth rate expectations.

Aluminium  Notes at Metal Bulletin’s Aluminium Conference – Berlin.  Tariffs will not solve China’s overcapacity.

Gold  Prices are seeing little reaction & remain below key psychological level of USD 1,200/oz.

Platinum & Palladium  Zimbabwe’s policy changes aimed at attracting investment.  More change may be needed.

*Oil  The OPEC agreement has been well managed.  But, more oil needs to be discovered.

*Coal  Fire at North Goonyella!  South Africa’s new Mining Charter may need further revision(s).

Iron Ore  Chinese policy of shutting inefficient polluting mills drives demand for high grade feed materials.

Shipping  Panamax rates up while Cape rates flat, ahead of China’s October week holidays.


*South American Exchange Rates:  Chile, Peru, Argentina, Brazil.

*Base Metal PinchPoint graphs:  Inventories continue to reduce (except Sn).

*World Steel:  Healthy August yr-on-yr and 12-month yr-on-yr growth.

*Seaborne Coking Coal:  Australia dominates seaborne coking coal supply but patterns are shifting.

USA – Durable Goods, Vehicles, Electronic goods:  strong positive growth.