Commodity Review 20181026  by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20181026 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

China Freight, Industry and Energy, World Steel

The markets’ commentary increasingly flags the polarisation of fundamental factors vs sentiment drivers, that appear to be the dominant forces. What catalyst is necessary for the industry fundamentals to grab the attention of sentiment?


Copper  Sentiment and fundamental conditions for Cu remain poles apart.

Cobalt  Glencore resumed output from DRC operations at Katanga.

Nickel  Eramet’s New Caledonia operations are struggling, under high costs (and protests).

Zinc & Lead  Sentiment & analysts rate Zn’s outlook poorly, though fundamentals are tight.  Pb – G1A & TKM.  .

Tin  Change from last week’s opinion.  Now ‘increased difficulty’ in supply from Indonesia.

Aluminium  Global aluminium production growth has ground to a halt this year.  Outages, alumina (& tariffs).

Gold  Bhar is “cautiously bullish” on gold prices.

Platinum & Palladium  Amplats’ ouput of Pt increased on improved operations’ performance.

Oil  Oil market in turmoil.  Sanctions on Iran, China-USA trade war, sentiment.  Potential for oversupply.

Coal  Metallurgical coal tighter.  Indian demand, Chinese port restrictions.  Thermal better supplied.

Iron Ore  Tightness in the iron ore market looks likely to persist.

Shipping  Panamax rates down, while Cape rates stronger.


China – Transport:  If Freight is a good indicator of economies, China’s growth is not slowing.

World Steel:  Continued positive production growth overall, including from China.

China – Industrial & Energy Output:  +ve growth for:  rolled steel, gas, electricity, air-conditioners, colour TV, Li-batts, plain glass.

USA – Durable goods, Vehicles, Electronic goods.  Strong positive growth

Commodity Review 20180831 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available

Commodity Review 20180831 by Andrew Pedler – Now Available


This week’s comments of particular interest are noted with ‘*’.


Copper  Peruvian communities protest against local mine infrastructure development.

*Cobalt  BMI considers recent price falls are more due to sentiment than demand reduction.

Nickel  Ni market still tightening. : PAN, CTM, POS, GBR, IPT.

*Zinc & Lead  CRU stress tests outlook for Zn regarding Chinese mine supply ability to return to production.  TKM

Tin  WBMS reports tin market deficit.

Aluminium  USA is trying to negotiate quotas for Canada and Mexico for Al instead of tariffs.

Gold  CSIRO demonstrates cyanide-free gold production in WA.

Platinum & Palladium  New Pt-Au alloy is the most wear-resistant metal;  comparable to diamond and sapphire.

*Oil  OPEC to meet 23 Sept.  USA sells oil from strategic Reserves, to cover sanction effects.

Coal  Asian thermal coal buyers becoming more cost conscious.  Producers look to European mkts.

Iron Ore  There has been relatively little investment in iron ore mines of late.

Shipping  Cape rates down, Panamax rates stable.


*China Freight:  Strong growth in rail, highway and water freight.

*Industrial ProductionSouth Korea, Brazil, India.

World Steel – widespread strong positive yr-on-yr growth, though avg daily output (mo-on-mo) slowed from June to July.